If you ask Perry, they have a silver lining. Doing read more, Click here to browse our Real Estate Agent Directory and contact top-rated agents in your area! Over the past 12 months, the state added 43,300 jobs. Earlier in 2021, Utah was considered as one of the hottest markets in the country, second only to Idaho. Historically, brief and prolonged price declines in Utah went hand in hand with joblessness and recessions, both of which dont seem likely in the next two to three years. This data does not reflect actual moves. A realty sign at a property in the Salt Lake City on Friday, Jan. 6, 2023. Three of the top ten most overvalued US housing markets are in Utah. Utah may be the 13th-largest state in the country by area, but it is also the 11th-least densely populated. What is the housing market like right now? After seven years of Salt Lake County sales averaging 18,000 homes, the high prices of 2023 will mean sales will not top 13,000, he predicted, and likely range between 11,000 to 12,000. The fi read more, Click here to browse our Real Estate Agent Directory and contact top-rated agents in your area! In January 2023, home prices in Utah were down 3.0% compared to last year, selling for a median price. They also anticipate prices to grow 8.5% and sales to grow 15.2%. While Utah is below the national average in many areas, home prices have managed to remain strong. In 2021, buyers were getting raked over the coals, having to give a years supply of pizza with their offer. Thats not hyperbole, he said. This would place . Median List Price By Bedroom Count Median List Price Compared To Nearby Cities Yun has said the margin of price declines will likely depend on the region. Home prices in Utah were down 3.0% year-over-year in January. Thats the story of 2022. Since the pandemic began, housing prices in the Beehive State have skyrocketed to the point that more than 50% of households can no longer afford to buy median-priced properties in the state. Eskic, however, is predicting Utah home prices will drop 9% year over year in 2023. It has been one of if not the most competitive markets in the US in 2021. In Utah, housing prices have begun to decline, down from their peak in May, when the median sales price of Salt Lake County homes was $565,600. . We could see this start to decrease as the inventory of houses is higher than almost any other month in 2022 (9,387 for September) and the number of days homes are sitting on the market grew from 30 in August to 39 in September according to the real estate website, Redfin. After a long, over two-year frenzy, Perry said buyers had more breathing room to negotiate prices and complete their due diligence. Scotty Fletcher, left, and his partner Joseph Branca pose for a photo in their apartment they rent in Salt Lake City on Thursday, Dec. 29, 2022. Half of the country may experience small price gains, while the other half may see slight price declines., Copyright 2023 Deseret News Publishing Company. Should You Invest in the Phoenix Housing Market in 2020? Search and compare real estate agents near you. Do not sell or share my personal information. The counties covered by this report added more than 35,000 new jobs over the past year, which was also a growth rate of 2.6%. Average income: 74197. Its going to be tough for real estate agents. The party was over. Check! Since Utah house prices are higher than the national average, it should come as no surprise that the demand has gone down noticeably since July 2022. Major Utah cities covered in this report: These Utah real estate reports, data, forecasts, and market trends are provided for informational use. Like West Valley City, West Jordan is considered to be a suburb of the capital city Salt Lake City. 28.7% of homes sold above the asking price, reaching a median sale price of $525,000, which represents a 7.8% increase in the past year. Blame remote work, not speculative bubble, Fed study says, What state lawmakers are doing to address Utahs housing crisis, Department of Labor reports that child labor has increased by nearly 70% since 2018, Feds hardwire child care benefits to $39 billion in CHIPS Act funding, Grit and circumstance: Bestselling author Angela Duckworth brings her wisdom to BYU, The starter home in Utah is extinct: How first-time homebuyers could get 20K for new homes, How a new service aims to help teens remove explicit internet images. Connect with an Agent It is equally impressive to see that the unemployment rate remained at a very low level even as the state added over 52,400 people to the workforce. However, this increase in inventory is not due to newly listed homes but properties staying on the market longer, as only 3,764 homes were listed in September 2022, 20% less than the year before. Hed hoped for a modest single family home, a starter home to share with his partner, to at least get their foot in the door of home ownership and out of the one bedroom, one bathroom apartment theyre currently renting in Salt Lake City. Its important to keep a tab on the housing market and current trends. Some, however, say the market needs this correction to reach a more healthy equilibrium between sellers and buyers as well as healthier affordability. So its really tough to say, but I think its going to be minimal negative, or negative positive, Yun said. Cache County Housing Market Trends. Even with todays rising mortgage rates, it will continue to be the time to buy a house in Utah. Park City Data The Utah housing market does not yet significantly favor home buyers but, given the data discussed in this report, it has certainly shifted away from sellers and into neutral territory. Homes that sold above list price likely received multiple offers. Contact Us, Real Estate Blog But high mortgage rates, some weeks hovering over 7%, did trigger a type of collapse in demand and sales. If you are using a screen reader, or having trouble reading this website, please call Redfin Customer Support for help at 1-844-759-7732. Next came Sacramento, Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Tampa. Updated January 2023: By searching, you agree to the Terms of Use, andPrivacy Policy. 2022 housing market forecast While overvalued does not necessarily mean that a housing market will crash, these markets are at a higher risk of a sharper correction when economic conditions change. Such a decline is extremely unlikely in Utah in 2023 and 2024, Wood wrote. -0.63% home value decrease month over month. With the low amount of inventory, sellers will continue to enjoy multiple offers, with some buyers willing to fork over way above market price to beat out other potential buyers. Branca said if someone like him is struggling to buy, he cant imagine what its like for people living on lower incomes. Thank you for registering with FastExpert. The direction and pace at which home prices are changing are indicators of the strength of the housing market and. Then the rates hit and they were left holding the bag, Eskic said. There were only 31.8% of homes that had price drops, up from 10.0% of homes in January last year. Market time rose 22 days from the third quarter of 2022. Branca, 30, knew he wanted to buy somewhere in Salt Lake County so hed have a reasonable commute to work. 27.7% of homes sold above the asking price. 2022's housing market follows Utah's hottest housing year ever . The median price of a home in the United States is currently $518,200. About Us Theres going to be a terrible consolidation, he said, though he added he believes ultimately itll be good for the industry., In 2020 and 2021, when Congress was writing COVID-19 stimulus checks, Kelman said real estate diversified in an interesting way because those stimulus checks allowed people to experiment with real estate.. 2023 will be tough for sales. It seemed like the housing market was running away from buyers, who struggled to get offers accepted due to shockingly low inventory levels. Hes predicting Utah home prices will drop 9% year over year in 2023. As mortgage rates are at record highs in 20 years by 7.08%. between 2021-12-31 and 2022-12-31. The flood of new residents that started in 2020 has not slowed due to low unemployment rates, low taxes, and affordable housing. Copyright 2023 Deseret News Publishing Company. They didnt go down.. We also observe a lengthening of the time spent on the market and a decrease in both new listings and sales, which points towards a general slowing down of the Utah housing market. Of all the major U.S. metros, Miami was the most searched for destination among homebuyers looking to relocate between Nov '22 - Jan '23. Prices, though theyre on a downward trajectory, are still up year over year by single-digit percentages at least for now. Thats a good thing, because they were overpriced anyway, right? Perry said. Therefore, Wood is predicting a couple of quarters in 2023, with home prices likely the most vulnerable in the first and second quarter of the year. Hes employed as a professional actor and director of marketing and advertising at Hale Center Theater Orem, as well as director of communications at the Salt Lake Acting Company. Here are their year-over-year predictions for the Salt Lake City housing market in 2022: Forecasted home sales change: +15.2%. Affirming this projection, Wood asserts . What is the housing market like in Cache County today? To Eskic, 2022 was the year of the Fed. In his mind, it was a federal miscalculation to raise borrowing rates so high and so fast after two runaway years. The client gave a slightly crooked smile to suggest that I am not only biased but also a Realtor who makes a living by selling properties in Utah. This current environment allows experienced and knowledgeable agents to negotiate more seller concessions, which can help buy down the rate, giving the buyers a more affordable and competitive monthly payment. I call it the great debate, Ivory said. Hes predicting Utahs home prices will only experience minor blips that will stabilize into the green after only a few quarters. While home prices have decreased about 3% month over month, home prices are up nearly 9% year over year in August. It would slow, but it wouldnt be stopped like it is now.. In January 2023, 17.5% of homes in Utah sold below list price, down 27.8 points yearover year. An increasing population and a shortage of homes have increased house prices in Utah. With rates hitting record lows of 2%, things are about to change in 2022 as recent trends on 30-year fixed mortgages have already come very close to 3%. The Utah housing market forecast for 2022 anticipates that more and more people will be on the lookout for property to purchase. The number of newly listed homes was 1,954 and up 1.4% year over year. Homes on the market: 11,172. Its falling off faster than we thought it would.. Others argue the apartments meet the growing demand for high-end housing in Salt Lake City, it's the latest development in what's been an expensive year to find and afford a home. Click here to browse our Real Estate Agent Directory and contact top-rated agents in your area! The latest migration analysis is based on a sample of about two Book an appointment today. The Utah housing market has experienced consistent growth in real estate throughout the past five years, but it started to take off in mid-2020. From peak-to-trough, he expects prices to decline by a percentage somewhere in the mid to low teens, depending on interest rates. Realtor.com anticipates Salt Lake City metro home-price growth will be at 8.5% and home-sales growth at 15.2% in 2022. Key Market Stats for the Utah Housing Market According to September 2022 data, some of the key market stats for the Utah housing market appear as follows: Median home price: $533,500 - a 5.6% Y.o.Y. At the same time, the number of homes sold fell 34.7% and the number of homes for sale rose 81.9%. Prices were 3.7% lower than in the third quarter of 2022. Windermere Search AppSite Map, 2023 Windermere Real Estate Services Company / All rights reserved / Terms/Privacy / Feedback / Site Map. The median days on the market was 70 days, up 47 year over year., The direction and pace at which home prices are changing are indicators of the strength of the housing market andwhether homes are becoming more or less affordable. Each year, the Sal. Heres what volatile mortgage rates are doing to your purchasing power, Stuck between rent hikes and high home prices, this family is scraping by to afford a home, still cant afford to buy something at a significantly lower quality, How the housing market is making boomers richer and millennials poorer, how many other Utahns the market has priced out, 79% of Utah households couldnt afford the states median priced home, Why two housing experts disagree on how much Utah home prices will drop in 2023, National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun, What state lawmakers are doing to address Utahs housing crisis, Department of Labor reports that child labor has increased by nearly 70% since 2018, Feds hardwire child care benefits to $39 billion in CHIPS Act funding, Grit and circumstance: Bestselling author Angela Duckworth brings her wisdom to BYU, The starter home in Utah is extinct: How first-time homebuyers could get 20K for new homes, How a new service aims to help teens remove explicit internet images. In addition, Utahs median listing price is 36% more than homes across the United States. Imagine earning over $100,000 a year and being qualified to buy a half-million-dollar home but still not being able to swing it. The direction and pace at which housing supply changes indicate whether the options for buyers are increasing or decreasing. In addition, while year-on-year figures still show growth, monthly data is beginning to tell a different story of dropping prices, a trend that is expected to continue through the rest of 2022 and into 2023. As for interest rates, Wood noted forecasts vary widely, anywhere from 5% to 9%, but he personally expects rates to bounce between 6.5% and 7.5% in 2023. We break down our data by county, but we cover major cities in this region including Salt Lake City, West Valley City, Provo, and West Jordan. With the market starting to change, weve seen a decrease of 25.3% in sales in the Utah housing market, and 49% of homes had price drops. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. REDFIN and all REDFIN variants, TITLE FORWARD, WALK SCORE, and the R logos, are trademarks of Redfin Corporation, registered or pending in the USPTO. Thats when buyers found their affordability ceiling. But even though discounts have been swift, Utahs home prices are still slightly up year over year. Median home price for Salt Lake residents over the last year was $564,062. Nevertheless, at the time of the writing, the Utah housing market remains a sellers market due to the lack of inventory. The average sale price in the fourth quarter rose a modest .6% from the fourth quarter of 2021 to $604,105. Utahs housing experts disagree over how much home prices will decline, though they remain confident that 2023 will not bring a full blown, 2007-like crash, and that Utahs strong job economy will still largely insulate it from any negative impacts of a recession. They also anticipate prices to grow 8.5% and sales to grow 15.2%. Forecast for 2022 High prices, likely interest rates increases, listing . Months supply of inventory: 3 up from 1 in September 2021. Nationally, a growing number of experts and firms are predicting U.S. home prices will fall, some expecting slight, single-digit drops, while others expect prices to fall by double digits, perhaps even over 20%. A low or shrinking percentage of homes selling above list price suggests that the market is becoming less competitive. Mortgage rates are primarily based on the prices and yields of bonds, and while bonds take cues from several places, they are always impacted by inflation and the economy at large. 2.1 months of housing inventory. Like, they were not outrageous houses or homes that would have been that (price) five or 10 years ago.. It completely snowballed out of control., That $4,200 monthly payment would have been for a home on the very upper end of his budget, Branca said, and never one that I was actually considering, but certainly one that I should have been able to consider. Utahs economy continues to add jobs, but the pace of growth has started to slow. In 2021 the average interest rate was 2.96%, the lowest interest rate that FreddieMac measured since 1971. If rates had risen to around 4.5%, the train would still go. Over 2022, the Federal Reserve has been battling sky-rocking inflation with their number one weapon, interest rates. Just remember, pricing has never been more critical than right now. We always have deceleration in the rate of increases as the cycle plays itself out. Buying read more, FastExpert, Inc is a California Licensed Broker. Economists, consulting firms and other experts all have varying forecasts when it comes to the degree to which home prices will constrict. Given that interest rates more than doubled in less than a year, its impossible for there not to be an impact on the housing market. Preston was born in Provo, Utah, and raised in Spanish Fork, Utah. When is the best time to buy a house in Utah? Salt Lake City, Utah Just like Utah peaches Forecast home price change by May 2022: 23.5% Local professional: Dave Robison, broker and owner of goBE Realty, and former president of Utah Association of Realtors and Salt Lake Board of Realtors What makes the Salt Lake City market poised for growth? Meanwhile, new home construction. He plans to revisit the possibility maybe in another year or two, depending on what happens. Median sale price: $611,600. Comparatively speaking, I make more money than my parents combined income at my age and still cant afford to buy something at a significantly lower quality than what they were able to purchase at that same age, Branca said. Starting in March 2022, the Federal Reserve Bank initiated an aggressive interest rate hike policy as a means to fight back against inflation. However, as the Federal Reserve Bank started using its economic power to fight back against inflation, which has reached a forty-year high, by increasing interest rates, the Utah housing market is beginning to show signs of a significant slowing down. Compared to the third quarter of 2022, average home prices fell in every area other than Summit County, where they rose .8%. 30-year mortgage rate: 5.59000%. Half a million people from one state alone. The following analysis of select counties of the Utah real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. No, you shouldnt wait to buy a home. Even a two-year period will historically yield an increase in equity in the Utah housing market. Already have a FastExpert account? However, as the level of Utah housing prices outstripped the national average, the demand is bound to decline as salaries are not increasing nearly as fast as property prices. The Utah housing market became one of the most competitive in the country, especially in areas like Salt Lake City and St. George. That said, listing prices were higher in Morgan, Wasatch, and Summit counties compared to the prior quarter. John Burns Real Estate Consulting now expects U.S. home prices to fall 20% to 22%. shattering the 43-year-old record of 20.1% set in 1978," wrote James Wood in the 2022 Housing Forecast Executive Report. Home sales: 3,219 26.7% less than a year ago. How far will they fall? Realtor.com isn't the only group offering a strong forecast for the Salt Lake City real estate scene in 2022. The best way to describe it, he said, is an abrupt contraction thats had a dramatic effect on all aspects of the market, but especially on homebuilding, which he and Eskic worry will exacerbate Utahs housing shortage long term. All Rights Reserved, Why two housing experts disagree on how much Utah home prices will drop in 2023, priced some two-thirds of Utahns out of affording the median priced home, Housing market is correcting but Utahs affordability crisis isnt going away. Gone are the days of brutal competition. Although demand has softened compared to last year, pushing home price growth into single-digit territory for the first time in 12 months, moderation in home price growth may encourage more buyers to return to the market in the months ahead, and may also be welcome news for sellers aiming to sell and buy at the same time., Copyright 2023 Deseret News Publishing Company. How the pandemic housing frenzy which drove housing prices up to unimaginable levels in 2021 and into early 2022, especially in Western states like Idaho and Utah came to a grinding halt mid year, and the market crashed down to reality. He has a natural inclination to the arts and creatives. However, in the wake of the Feds aggressive monetary policy, the price growth is not sustainable. The strong demand and limited supply of home inventory will push against price declines and keep home prices relatively stable over time. In the final quarter of 2022, 5,145 homes sold in the areas covered by this report. The median days on the market was 70 days, up 47 year over year. Other Regional Data. 1 housing market in the nation for 2022. After a big boom over the past two years, there will essentially be no change nationally in home prices in 2023, said the National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun. Utah is expected to continue its rapid growth and will need to see an increase in available housing to accommodate the incoming population. It just seems so odd to be in such a comfortable position and not have that as a practical option. Utah hosted the 2002 Winter games, and Utah is looking to once again host these games once again. FastExpert partner and Utah real estate agent, Preston Hicks, shares his professional perspective on the Utah housing market. However, during the Great Recession, prices declined for years before accelerating again. .6 % from the fourth quarter rose a modest.6 % from the third quarter of 2022, number! A shortage of homes in January last year was $ 564,062 time to buy somewhere in Utah... Pizza with their offer a reasonable commute to work are changing are indicators of the hottest in! The wake of the Fed 2022 anticipates that more and more people will be on market... 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You ask Perry, they have a silver lining of growth has started to slow plans to revisit possibility. Wasatch, and Tampa for years before accelerating again 30, knew wanted! Swift, Utahs home prices will constrict Eskic, however, during the Recession... Or shrinking percentage of utah housing market predictions 2022 for sale rose 81.9 % a long over... Also the 11th-least densely populated / Terms/Privacy / Feedback / Site Map country by area, but wouldnt. Home inventory will push against price declines and keep home prices to fall %... Is below the national average in many areas, home prices will drop 9 % year over.. Is now been swift, Utahs median listing price is 36 % more than homes across the States. Economist Matthew Gardner that as a practical option offering a strong forecast for 2022 high prices, interest. 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